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Tesla Model 3

No more is Tesla likely to lose money and yet meet its stock price soar because, well, that's i sign of a successful tech company. Tesla lost a record $671 meg om the quarter, the company reported Wed, and produced merely 260 units of the Model 3 over those iii months from July to September.

The company has lost virtually a quarter of its total market value since mid-September. Some analysts say they aren't getting articulate answers from CEO Elon Musk and they're less inclined to believe Tesla promises, for example that production of v,000 Model 3s per week this quarter can now be expected in the first quarter of 2018. Tesla admits there are problems at its battery mill; others wonder if there are problems on the main production line.

Tesla stock cost since going public at $17 per share June 29, 2010. This summer it was worth 23X the initial investment. (Source: Yahoo/Edgar)

Promises and Restated Promises

Tesla's 2017 Q4 goal is at present its 2018 Q1 plan.

The $35,000 (base price) Tesla Model 3 sedan is Tesla'south mass market place machine. Some 400,000 people put down $1,000 deposits.

Tesla'southward goal was to be producing Model 3s in meaning quantity this year. In July, Musk tweeted Tesla expected to build more than i,500 Model 3s in August and September and in an August newsletter to shareholders, Tesla reiterated, "We are confident we tin can produce just over 1,500 vehicles in Q3." Tesla met 17 percent of that goal, aircraft just 260. A chart still on Tesla'south site today (Nov. 3) showed the five,000 units-per-calendar week product by year'south end. The Baronial letter of the alphabet also said Tesla will be "increasing Model iii product to ten,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018."

Some analysts say they don't see Tesla hit 5,000 cars per week until sometime in Q2 (April to June 2018). That calls into question Tesla's goal of edifice nearly 300,000 Model 3'due south in 2018; it could exist more than like 250,000.

Tesla stock prices concluding three months: off 23% vs. the September pinnacle. (Source: Yahoo)

It'due south the Production Line, Non the Car

The Tesla Model Due south, its luxury sedan, suffered from reliability issues in its early on years. Consumer Reports expects the 2018 Model Due south volition be better than average; 2016 and 2017 models were rated average. The Model X crossover/wagon has been plagued with problems on its falcon-fly doors. Buyers of both have complained about long waits for crash repair parts. Tesla has been talking most strong sales of the Models S and X, but it has as well cut production, causing confusion about how well the cars are doing.

As for the Model iii, Tesla says the delay results from problems at the battery production Gigafactory in Nevada, which is a joint venture with Panasonic. Musk actually did his conference call with analysts from the factory and said he'd been sleeping in that location equally well, recently. "To date, our main product constraint has been in the bombardment module assembly line at Gigafactory one, where cells are packaged into modules," Tesla said. 4 of the battery jail cell modules make up the bombardment pack.

Some analysts question whether there may also be issues with the main Tesla factory–the production line in Fremont, California–that could too be a clogging if and when the battery issues are straightened out. A production line is a frail ballet of just-in-time deliveries, moving parts to the line, welding machines, robotic artillery, and humans putting it all together. Tesla last month fired several hundred employees on account of, Tesla says, poor performance reviews. (Some of the employees disputed the performance-review part.) But before taking analyst questions Midweek, Musk went on an extended riff or bluster, accept your pick, about journalists defective integrity. Co-ordinate to a transcription provided by Seeking Alpha, Musk said:

The other thing I want to mention, there are a lot of articles nigh Tesla firing employees and layoffs, these are really ridiculous. And any announcer who has written articles to this effect should be ashamed of themselves for lack of journalistic integrity. Every company in the world, there's almanac functioning reviews. In our annual performance review, despite Tesla having an extremely loftier standard, a standard far higher than other car companies, which nosotros demand to have in society to survive against much larger car companies; you tin can't be a lilliputian guy and have equal levels of skill as the big guy.

Meanwhile, other automakers are improving quality every year, including on United states of america-congenital vehicles. As the Tesla Model iii trickles out, Chevrolet continues to creepo out the Bolt EV–a tape ii,781 units in Oct, 17,083 for the year and along with sales concluding December, 17,662 then far in Bolt's history. That's not much compared with Tesla's Model three plans, merely information technology dwarfs the couple thousand Model 3s Tesla volition ship this year.

The Bolt EV is comparable in range to the base Model 3, 238 miles (rated), and a bit smaller. Reviewers are split between calling the Commodities EV plain and those seeing it as utilitarian-sort-of-cute. It is currently the only significant challenger in 2018 to the Model South in terms of range. The 2018 Nissan Foliage gets a battery upgrade, but just to 150 miles; a redesigned Leaf should hit 200-plus in 2019, every bit should other automakers. In fact, about every automaker volition take a 200-mile EV by 2020. Tesla's window of exclusivity may be closing.

Go on the Organized religion

Tesla'southward Musk said there take been very few people stepping back from the waiting line and asking for their $1,000 deposits back. That makes sense. Having $1,000 tied up isn't a severe hardship in this portion of the market and Tesla the visitor has been able to bond with many of its buyers and want-to-exist buyers.

How investors and their advisors feel is another matter. It has been a rocky summer and early fall. Tesla has had tough periods that led to even higher valuations for those who stayed ab0ard. Tesla went public June 29, 2010 at $17 per share, hit $100 in May 2013, $200 in May 2014, and $300 in April 2017. Shares peaked at an all-fourth dimension of $389.61 Sept. 17, 2017, fell to $321.08 the day before the earnings written report, then closed at $299.26 Thursday and was probable to cease the calendar week around $300, clawing back six-plus months of gains.

Fifty-fifty if Tesla buyers believe Elon Musk has a magical bear on and they keep the faith, it appears the analysts covering Tesla may not continue to be every bit deferential. Some are talking most a coming greenbacks crunch. Some in their reports to clients talked well-nigh wishing for more than transparency from Tesla and its executives. And some may exist put off by Musk's riffs on allegedly low-integrity journalists trying to brand Tesla look bad.

Shania Twain could about be singing to Tesla'southward maestro: Okay, so you've got a automobile | That don't impress me much | So y'all got the moves but have you got the affect?